Estuve ausente, pero sé que la fiesta no fue un fracaso.

Questions & Answers about Estuve ausente, pero sé que la fiesta no fue un fracaso.

This lesson is about using the conditional for past probability. How could I change the second half of this sentence to guess that the party was probably a failure?
You can replace the preterite fue with the conditional sería. Saying la fiesta sería un fracaso translates to 'the party was probably a failure' or 'the party must have been a failure'. In Spanish, the conditional tense is heavily used to express guesses, wonderings, or probability about the past.
Why does this sentence use estuve (from estar) for being absent, but fue (from ser) for the party?
Estar is used for locations and temporary states, like being absent (ausente). On the other hand, ser is used for events. When you talk about an event taking place or evaluate how an event went (like a party being a failure), you always use ser.
Could I say estaba ausente instead of estuve ausente?
Yes, both are correct but they give a slightly different feel. Using the preterite estuve treats your absence as a single, completed fact linked directly to the timeframe of the party. If you used the imperfect estaba, you would be describing it as background information or setting the scene.
Does sé que (I know that) ever trigger the subjunctive mood for the verb that follows?
No, because it expresses absolute certainty. Phrases that declare a known fact or strong belief, like sé que or creo que, use the normal indicative mood (which is why we see fue here). However, if you made it negative and said no creo que (I do not believe that), you would introduce doubt and need to use the subjunctive.

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