Se perdo la coincidenza, arriverò tardi a Bologna.

In Italian, when you talk about a real future possibility after se meaning if, you normally use the present tense in the if-clause:

• Se perdo la coincidenza, arriverò tardi.

This is the usual pattern:

• se + present
• future in the main clause

So Italian says, literally:

• If I miss the connection, I will arrive late

Using se perderò is generally not the standard choice here.

Because it describes what will happen as a result of missing the connection.

• perdo = I miss
• arriverò = I will arrive

So the sentence has a very common structure for future conditions:

• Se + present tense, future tense

Example:

• Se piove, resterò a casa. = If it rains, I will stay home.

Here, la coincidenza means a connection in travel: a connecting train, bus, or flight.

So in this sentence, perdere la coincidenza means:

• to miss a connection
• to miss the connecting train/flight

Be careful: coincidenza can also mean coincidence in other contexts, but in travel it often means connection.

Because perdere is normally used directly with the thing you miss:

• perdere il treno = to miss the train
• perdere l’aereo = to miss the plane
• perdere la coincidenza = to miss the connection

You do not need mi here.

Mi perdo usually means I get lost, not I miss something.

Compare:

• Perdo il treno. = I miss the train.
• Mi perdo in città. = I get lost in the city.

Italian often leaves out subject pronouns because the verb ending already shows who the subject is.

• perdo clearly means I lose / I miss
• arriverò clearly means I will arrive

So io is not necessary.

You could say:

• Se io perdo la coincidenza, arriverò tardi a Bologna.

But that usually adds emphasis, contrast, or clarity. In normal speech, leaving out io is more natural.

With cities, Italian usually uses a:

• a Roma
• a Milano
• a Bologna

So:

• arrivare a Bologna = to arrive in Bologna / to arrive at Bologna

Use in more often with countries, regions, and larger areas:

• in Italia
• in Toscana
• in Francia

Yes, in this sentence tardi means late.

• arrivare tardi = to arrive late

It is used adverbially here, describing how you arrive.

Examples:

• Sono arrivato tardi. = I arrived late.
• Partiamo tardi. = We are leaving late.

No, that would sound wrong in English. Even though perdere often means to lose, here the natural meaning is:

• to miss the connection

So the best translation is:

• If I miss the connection, I’ll arrive late in Bologna.

Or more naturally in English:

• If I miss my connection, I’ll arrive late in Bologna.
• If I miss the connecting train/flight, I’ll arrive late in Bologna.

Yes, arriverò tardi a Bologna is the neutral, standard word order.

Italian word order is flexible, but changing it can shift emphasis.

• Arriverò tardi a Bologna. = neutral
• A Bologna arriverò tardi. = puts more emphasis on Bologna

So the original sentence sounds natural and normal.

Yes, you can hear that in spoken Italian, especially when talking about a future result in an informal way. The present tense is sometimes used with future meaning.

However, the version with arriverò is clearer and more standard when you want to express a future consequence:

• Se perdo la coincidenza, arriverò tardi a Bologna.

That is probably the best form for a learner to use.

This is a real possible condition: something that may actually happen in the future.

The structure is:

• Se + present indicative
• future indicative

So:

• Se perdo la coincidenza, arriverò tardi a Bologna.

This is different from more hypothetical patterns, such as:

• Se perdessi la coincidenza, arriverei tardi.
  = If I missed the connection, I would arrive late.

That second version sounds more hypothetical or less direct.

A helpful approximate pronunciation is:

• ko-in-chee-DEN-tsa

A few points:

• ci before d here sounds like chee
• z in -denza sounds like ts
• the stress is on den

So the stress is:

• coinciDENza

Yes. In travel, coincidenza can be used for different kinds of connections, such as:

• a train connection
• a bus connection
• a flight connection

If the context is clear, la coincidenza is enough. If you want to be more specific, you can say:

• la coincidenza del treno
• la coincidenza del volo

But the simple form in your sentence is completely natural.