Learn Hardcore Spanish (Spain): Yo no creo que el ascenso llegue este año, aunque agradezco su confianza. - I do not think the promotion will come this year, although I appreciate her confidence.

llega = present indicative (I state it as real/factual).
llegue = present subjunctive (I talk about something uncertain, doubted, wished, etc.).

With creer:

Creo que el ascenso llega este año.
→ I think it will / is going to happen (I see it as likely/real) → indicative.
No creo que el ascenso llegue este año.
→ I don’t think it will happen (I doubt it / see it as unlikely) → subjunctive.

So the negation of belief (no creo que) is what forces llegue instead of llega.

What tense is llegue here? It talks about the future, so why isn’t it a future tense?

Llegue is present subjunctive, not future tense.

Spanish often uses the present subjunctive to talk about future events when they are:

uncertain
hypothetical
dependent on another verb (like no creo que, cuando, antes de que, etc.)

English uses will or going to here, but Spanish keeps the present form in the subjunctive:

No creo que el ascenso llegue este año.
= I don’t think the promotion will come this year.

There is a future subjunctive form in very old/very formal Spanish, but it’s practically not used in modern speech.

Could I say Yo no creo que el ascenso llega este año and still be understood?

People would understand you, but it sounds incorrect or at least very non‑native.

Native speakers expect:

No creo que el ascenso llegue este año. ✅

Using llega after no creo que sounds like a learner’s mistake because it breaks a very strong pattern: negated belief / doubt + subjunctive.

Is yo necessary? Could I just say No creo que el ascenso llegue este año?

You can absolutely drop yo:

No creo que el ascenso llegue este año. ✅

Spanish usually omits subject pronouns because the verb ending already shows the person (creo = I think). You include yo mainly for:

emphasis:
Yo no creo que el ascenso llegue este año.
→ I don’t think so (maybe others do, but I don’t).
contrast with someone else’s opinion:
Tú crees que sí, pero yo no creo que el ascenso llegue este año.

Why is it el ascenso llegue and not llegue el ascenso? Can you change the order?

Both orders are grammatically correct:

No creo que el ascenso llegue este año.
No creo que llegue el ascenso este año.

In this context, they mean essentially the same. The first is probably a bit more natural because el ascenso is a specific, known thing and Spanish often places known subjects earlier in the clause.

The second order (llegue el ascenso) can sound a bit more stylistic or emphatic (focusing a bit more on the event of arriving).

Why is it este año and not esta año?

Because año is a masculine noun in Spanish:

el año → este año ✅
la semana → esta semana
el mes → este mes

The demonstrative must agree in gender and number with the noun:

este año (this year)
estos años (these years)
esta semana (this week)
estas semanas (these weeks)

What exactly does aunque mean here, and why is agradezco in the indicative?

Here aunque means something like even though / although:

aunque agradezco su confianza
= even though I (really) appreciate your trust.

With aunque, Spanish chooses between indicative and subjunctive depending on whether the speaker sees the information as a fact:

Indicative (fact, something the speaker accepts as true):
Aunque agradezco su confianza, no creo que el ascenso llegue este año.
→ Even though I do appreciate your trust (and I mean that seriously), I still don’t think the promotion will come.
Subjunctive (uncertainty, hypothesis, concession about something not presented as a hard fact):
Aunque agradezca su confianza, no creo que el ascenso llegue este año.
→ More like: Even if I appreciate your trust (more theoretical or formal‑sounding).

In your sentence, agradezco is present indicative because the speaker is stating a real, sincere fact: they do appreciate the trust.

What’s the difference between agradezco su confianza and le agradezco su confianza?

Both are possible; the difference is in explicitly mentioning the person:

Agradezco su confianza.
→ Literally: I appreciate your trust / their trust / his/her trust.
The person is only shown indirectly through su.
Le agradezco su confianza.
→ Literally: I thank you (or him/her) for your / his / her trust.
Le is an indirect object pronoun (to you / to him / to her).

In practice:

To a single formal person (usted):
Le agradezco su confianza.
is a very polite way to say Thank you for your trust.
To talk more generally about the trust itself, without focusing on the person, Agradezco su confianza is fine and common.

Both are correct in Spain; adding le just makes the person more explicit and often feels a bit more formal/polite.

Does su confianza mean “your trust”, “his trust”, or “their trust”? How do you know?

Su is ambiguous in Spanish; it can mean:

your (formal singular: usted, and also ustedes in Spain when formal)
his
her
their

So su confianza can be:

your trust (formal)
his trust
her trust
their trust

You normally figure out which one it is from the context (who is speaking to whom, what was previously said).

If you need to remove ambiguity, you can use phrases like:

tu confianza (your, informal singular)
la confianza de usted (your, formal)
la confianza de él / de ella / de ellos / de ellas (his/her/their)

Is ascenso definitely “promotion” here? I thought it could also mean “ascent”.

Ascenso can mean:

Promotion (in a job or professional context).
Ascent / climb / rise (e.g., going up a mountain or a ranking).

In this sentence, with su confianza and the overall tone, the most natural reading is job promotion:

No creo que el ascenso llegue este año…
→ I don’t think the promotion will come this year.

Context (usually a work‑related conversation) makes it clear it’s about a promotion, not a physical climb.

Could I say something like sin embargo, agradezco su confianza instead of aunque agradezco su confianza?

Yes, but the structure changes slightly:

…aunque agradezco su confianza.
= …although / even though I appreciate your trust.
Aunque directly links two clauses in one sentence.
…; sin embargo, agradezco su confianza.
= …; however, I appreciate your trust.
Sin embargo works more like a discourse connector (like however), usually starting a new clause or sentence.

Both are fine and natural in Spain.
Aunque feels more tightly integrated into the sentence; sin embargo sounds a bit more contrastive and formal, as it often starts a new phrase or sentence.