Learn Hardcore Turkish: Az ihtimal, ama konser iptal olursa sana yazacağım. - It’s unlikely, but if the concert is canceled, I’ll text you.

It literally means “low probability” or “small chance.” Turkish often uses such noun phrases as standalone comments. A full sentence would be İhtimal az., Az bir ihtimal., or Olma ihtimali az., but the short fragment is very natural in speech.

Is Az ihtimal natural as a sentence on its own?

Yes. In conversation it works like “Unlikely, but…” in English. You can also expand it to Çok düşük bir ihtimal, ama… for a bit more formality or emphasis.

What’s the difference between ihtimal and olasılık?

Both mean “probability/likelihood.”

ihtimal (of Arabic origin) is very common and neutral.
olasılık is a native Turkic formation, also common.
In this sentence, Az ihtimal and Az olasılık both work; the former is more idiomatic here.

Why is there a comma before ama? Could it be punctuated differently?

The comma reflects a pause: Az ihtimal, ama… You could also write Az ihtimal ama… or even split it: Az ihtimal. Ama… All are acceptable in informal writing.

What exactly does olursa mean and how is it formed?

It’s “if (it) happens/is,” from ol-ur-sa:

ol- = “be; become; happen”
-ur = aorist (“happens” in general)
-sa/-se = conditional (“if”) Vowel harmony picks -sa after back vowels (as in olur). So iptal olursa = “if (it) gets canceled.”

How is olursa different from olsa?

olursa (aorist + conditional) = a real, open condition (“if it happens”).
olsa (past stem + conditional) = more hypothetical/wishful (“if it were to happen/if only it happened”).
Here, iptal olursa is the natural choice.

Why iptal olursa instead of iptal edilirse?

Both mean “if (it) is canceled.”

iptal olursa uses the intransitive “be canceled” sense; it’s shorter and common in speech.
iptal edilirse is a passive with et- (“be canceled by someone”); it sounds a bit more formal/administrative.

What case is konser in, and where’s the article (“the”)?

konser is in the bare nominative. Turkish has no articles; definiteness comes from context. Here it clearly means “the concert.”

Why is it sana with yazacağım? Why not senin için or seninle?

The verb yazmak takes the dative case for the recipient: birine yazmak = “to write to someone.”

sana = “to you” (dative) → correct here.
senin için = “for you” (different meaning).
seninle = “with you”; yazışmak (“to correspond/chat”) would take -le: seninle yazışmak.

How is yazacağım built and pronounced?

Morphology: yaz-a-cağ-ım

yaz- (write) + -AcAk (future) + -Im (1sg “I”).
When a vowel follows, -AcAk’s final k softens to ğ: yazacağım.
Pronunciation tips:
ğ lengthens the preceding vowel; it’s not a hard “g.”
Final -ım has the dotless ı (uh/ɯ), not “ee.”
Roughly: ya-za-jaa-um (with a short final “um”).

What’s the nuance difference between yazacağım and yazarım?

yazacağım = definite future plan/intention: “I will write (to you).”
yazarım (aorist) can express a promise or general tendency: “I’ll write/I’d write.” In this context, yazacağım is clearer.

Is sana yazacağım a natural way to say “I’ll text/message you”?

Yes. In modern usage, sana yazacağım often implies messaging/texting. You can also say:

Sana mesaj atacağım. (very common colloquial)
Sana haber vereceğim. (“I’ll let you know,” a bit broader)

Can I add eğer to the conditional part?

Yes: Eğer konser iptal olursa, sana yazacağım.
eğer is optional and adds emphasis to the “if.”

How flexible is the word order? Where else can sana go?

Turkish word order is flexible for emphasis. All of these are fine:

Konser iptal olursa sana yazacağım. (neutral)
Konser iptal olursa, yazacağım sana. (emphasis on “to you”)
Sana, konser iptal olursa yazacağım. (fronts the recipient)

How do I say the negative version, like “If the concert isn’t canceled …”?

Use the negative of olmak or edilmek:

Konser iptal olmazsa, sana yazacağım. (if it doesn’t get canceled)
Konser iptal edilmezse, sana yazacağım. (same, slightly more formal)

Is there any difference between Az ihtimal and Az bir ihtimal?

Minimal. Az ihtimal is a tighter, very common phrase. Az bir ihtimal can sound a touch more explicit/emphatic. Both are idiomatic.

How formal is this sentence, and how would I make it more/less formal?

Neutral-informal as written.

More formal: Az bir ihtimal, fakat konser iptal edilirse size yazacağım/bilgilendireceğim.
More casual: Az ihtimal ama konser iptal olursa sana yazıcam/mesaj atarım.