Learn Hardcore Portuguese (Brazil): Provavelmente, neste momento, ela estaria trabalhando se não fosse feriado. - Probably, at this moment, she would be working if it were not a holiday.

estaria = conditional of estar (future of the preterite: futuro do pretérito), equivalent to “would be”
trabalhando = gerund of trabalhar, equivalent to “working”

So ela estaria trabalhando literally = “she would be working.”

Portuguese often uses estar + gerúndio (estar + -ndo form) the same way English uses “to be + -ing” to form progressive aspects:

ela está trabalhando = “she is working”
ela estaria trabalhando = “she would be working”

Why is fosse used instead of era or é in se não fosse feriado?

Fosse is the imperfect subjunctive of ser. After se in unreal or hypothetical conditions about the present, Portuguese normally uses the subjunctive, not the indicative:

Se não fosse feriado… = “If it weren’t a holiday…”
- unreal/hypothetical present → fosse (subjunctive)

Using era or é would sound wrong or at least uneducated in this specific “if … would …” type of sentence about an unreal present situation.

So the pattern is:

Se + imperfect subjunctive (fosse) → conditional (estaria trabalhando)
“If it weren’t X, (she) would be doing Y.”

Can I change the word order, like Se não fosse feriado, ela provavelmente estaria trabalhando neste momento?

Yes. Portuguese word order is fairly flexible, and your version is completely natural:

Se não fosse feriado, ela provavelmente estaria trabalhando neste momento.

Common variants (all fine):

Ela provavelmente estaria trabalhando agora se não fosse feriado.
Provavelmente ela estaria trabalhando agora se não fosse feriado.
Neste momento, ela provavelmente estaria trabalhando se não fosse feriado.

Moving se não fosse feriado to the beginning just changes the emphasis slightly (you highlight the condition first), but the meaning is the same.

What is the sentence talking about: present or past?

It refers to a hypothetical situation in the present.

Provavelmente, neste momento, ela estaria trabalhando se não fosse feriado.
= “She would probably be working right now if it weren’t a holiday.”

We’re imagining what would be happening now, under different circumstances.
The futuro do pretérito (estaria) in this kind of “if (se) … would …” structure often corresponds to English conditional about the present.

What exactly does se não fosse feriado mean, word by word?

Breakdown:

se = “if”
não = “not”
fosse = “were” (imperfect subjunctive of ser)
feriado = “a holiday / a public holiday”

So se não fosse feriado = “if it weren’t a holiday”.

The subject (“it”) is implicit and understood from context (usually “today” or “this day”).

What’s the difference between neste momento and agora? Are they interchangeable here?

In this sentence, they’re basically interchangeable:

neste momento = “at this moment”
agora = “now”

So you could say:

Provavelmente, agora, ela estaria trabalhando se não fosse feriado.
Provavelmente, neste momento, ela estaria trabalhando se não fosse feriado.

Nuance:

agora is more common and neutral in everyday speech.
neste momento can sound a bit more formal, careful, or emphatic than just agora, but it’s still very normal.

Why are there commas around provavelmente and neste momento? Are they necessary?

The commas show that provavelmente and neste momento are adverbial elements that can be moved or removed without breaking the core sentence.

Provavelmente, neste momento, ela estaria trabalhando se não fosse feriado.

Core clause: ela estaria trabalhando se não fosse feriado.

About the commas:

Provavelmente at the beginning is often followed by a comma in careful writing, but you will also see Provavelmente ela estaria… without a comma.
Neste momento in the middle is set off by commas because it’s sort of an aside (parenthetical). You could also write:
- Provavelmente neste momento ela estaria trabalhando… (no commas) – also acceptable.

So the commas help readability and rhythm, but native speakers are not always strict about them in informal text.

Could I leave out provavelmente or neste momento? How would that change the meaning?

Yes, you can omit either or both:

Neste momento, ela estaria trabalhando se não fosse feriado.
→ “Right now, she would be working if it weren’t a holiday.”
The idea of probability/uncertainty is removed; it sounds like a confident statement about what would be happening.
Provavelmente, ela estaria trabalhando se não fosse feriado.
→ “She would probably be working if it weren’t a holiday.”
The “right now”/“at this moment” nuance is gone; it’s a more general present-time idea.
Ela estaria trabalhando se não fosse feriado.
→ Simple: “She would be working if it weren’t a holiday.”
No adverbs of time or probability, just the conditional relationship.

What does feriado mean exactly, and do I need an article (um) here?

Feriado = a public holiday / day off due to a holiday (national, state, city, religious, etc.).

In this kind of generic statement about “today being a holiday,” Portuguese usually does not use an article:

Hoje é feriado. = “Today is a holiday.”
Se não fosse feriado… = “If it weren’t a holiday…”

If you say um feriado, it usually refers to one particular holiday among others:

É um feriado importante. = “It is an important holiday.”

So in this sentence, no article is the natural choice.

Could we say se hoje não fosse feriado instead of se não fosse feriado? Does it change anything?

Yes, and it’s very natural:

Provavelmente, neste momento, ela estaria trabalhando se hoje não fosse feriado.

Meaning: “She would probably be working right now if today weren’t a holiday.”

Adding hoje just makes the subject of fosse explicit (“today”) instead of implicit.
The meaning and structure are basically the same; it can even sound clearer in everyday speech.

Is there a simpler or more colloquial way Brazilians might say the same thing?

Yes, in everyday speech Brazilians might simplify the structure and use more common words like agora:

Ela provavelmente estaria trabalhando agora se hoje não fosse feriado.
Se não fosse feriado, ela provavelmente estaria trabalhando agora.

In informal spoken Portuguese, some people might also relax the tense consistency:

Se não fosse feriado, ela provavelmente tava trabalhando agora.
(Here tava = informal for estava. Grammatically, estaria is more correct, but tava is common in speech.)

For learners, it’s best to stick to the more standard:

Ela provavelmente estaria trabalhando agora se não fosse feriado.