Question 1

Since è molto probabile che expresses probability, why doesn't it trigger the subjunctive here?

Accepted Answer

You are exactly right that è molto probabile che usually requires the subjunctive. However, this sentence is talking about an event that will happen in the future. Because modern Italian does not have a future subjunctive tense, it uses the regular future indicative (si scioglierà) to show that the action takes place after the main clause.

Question 2

Could I use the present subjunctive here instead?

Accepted Answer

Yes, you can! You will often hear È molto probabile che il ghiacciaio si sciolga. The present subjunctive can refer to both present and future events. However, using the future indicative (si scioglierà) puts a much stronger emphasis on the fact that this melting is specifically a future event.

Question 3

Why is it si scioglierà (reflexive) and not just scioglierà?

Accepted Answer

The verb here is sciogliersi (to melt / to thaw). Italian uses the reflexive form when a subject changes its own physical state without a direct outside actor. If you used the non-reflexive sciogliere, it would mean to melt something else, and you would need a direct object, like in Il sole scioglierà il ghiacciaio (The sun will melt the glacier).

Question 4

How would I say this if the main clause was in the past, like 'It was very probable...'?

Accepted Answer

If the main clause is in the past (Era molto probabile che...), the melting becomes a 'future in the past' event. Because the future indicative doesn't work for past contexts, you would switch to the past conditional: Era molto probabile che il ghiacciaio si sarebbe sciolto (It was very probable that the glacier would melt).

È molto probabile che il ghiacciaio si scioglierà.

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