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Ils auront choisi non pas l'arc, mais la lance.

Ils auront choisi non pas l'arc, mais la lance.
They must have chosen not the bow, but the spear.
From Lesson 464:Probability with future tenses (il sera)·French

Questions & Answers about Ils auront choisi non pas l'arc, mais la lance.

Why does auront choisi translate to "must have chosen" instead of "will have chosen"?
This is the "futur de probabilité" (future of probability). In French, future tenses are often used to make assumptions or state strong probabilities. Since auront choisi is the future perfect (futur antérieur), it expresses a high probability about a past event, equivalent to the English "must have" or "probably did".
Why use non pas instead of just pas?
non pas is an emphatic way to say "not". It is frequently used in the structure non pas X, mais Y (not X, but Y) to create a strong contrast. While you could technically just say pas, non pas heavily highlights the rejection of the first option.
Could I use normal verbal negation and say Ils n'auront pas choisi l'arc, mais la lance?
Yes, but the emphasis shifts. Negating the verb directly means "They must not have chosen the bow..." The original sentence keeps the verb positive (auront choisi) and applies the negation directly to the noun (l'arc) to create a sharper "not this, but that" rhetorical contrast.
If the future perfect expresses an assumption about the past, how would I express an assumption about the present?
To say "They must be choosing" or "They are probably choosing right now", you would use the simple future tense: Ils choisiront non pas l'arc, mais la lance.

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