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### Making Assumptions with *-dır*

You have already seen the suffix **-dır** used for objective facts or formal announcements. In everyday conversation, attaching **-dır** (and its vowel harmony variants like **-dir**, **-tır**, **-tur**) to a conjugated verb expresses an assumption, a strong deduction, or a probability. It is how you say someone "must have" done something or "is probably" doing something.

When you attach **-dır** to the reported past tense (**-mış** / **-miş**), the resulting **-mıştır** form means "must have" or "probably has." This is commonly used when guessing why someone is late or what happened.

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### Adding Adverbs of Probability

Even though **-dır** implies a deduction on its own, you will frequently hear it paired with adverbs to clarify the degree of certainty. 

Using words like **herhalde** (I suppose / probably) or **muhtemelen** (probably) emphasizes that you are making a likely guess.

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Adding **kesin** (definitely) shows a confident deduction. You haven't seen it happen, but based on the evidence, you are certain it "must have" happened.

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### Present Assumptions

You can also make assumptions about what is happening right now by attaching the suffix to the present continuous tense (**-ıyor**). Because the final vowel of **-ıyor** is always **o**, the assumption suffix is always **-dur**. 

The form **-ıyordur** translates to "must be doing" or "is probably doing." It is often used alongside past assumptions to describe the current result of a past event.

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Probability with verbs (-dır)

adjective

adverb

conjunction

determiner

interjection

noun

numeral

particle

postposition

preposition

pronoun

sentence

verb

Demonstrative pronouns (bu, şu, o)

Basic question words (kim, ne)

Plural nouns (-lar, -ler)

I am and you are (-(y)ım, -sın)

We, you, and they are (-(y)ız, -sınız)

Negative statements (değil)

Yes and no questions (mı, mi, mu, mü)

Questions with 'to be' (mısın, mıyım)

Numbers 1 to 10 (bir, iki, üç)

Numbers 11 to 20 (on bir, on iki)

Numbers by tens to 100 (otuz, kırk...)

Counting objects (tane)

The locative case (-da, -de)

Consonant assimilation (-ta, -te)

Asking where (nerede)

There is / there are (var)

There is not / there are not (yok)

Asking how many (kaç)

Infinitive verbs (-mak, -mek)

Informal commands (git, gel)

Negative commands (-ma, -me)

Polite and plural commands (-In, -InIz)

Basic word order

Present continuous for consonant roots (-iyor)

Present continuous for vowel roots (-iyor)

Present continuous personal suffixes (-iyorum)

Negative present continuous (-miyor)

Present continuous questions (-iyor mu)

Future plans with present continuous

The dative case (-(y)a, -(y)e)

Consonant mutation (k, t, p, ç to ğ, d, b, c)

From or out of (-dan / -den)

Directional question words (nereye, nereden)

First and second person possessives (-(i)m, -(i)n)

Third person possessive (-(s)i)

Plural possessives (-imiz, -iniz, -leri)

The genitive case (-(n)in)

Definite noun compounds (-nin ... -si)

Indefinite noun compounds (bare noun + -(s)i)

Possessive buffer letter (n)

Spatial postpositions (içinde, üstünde)

The definite direct object (-(y)ı, -(y)i)

Object question words (kimi, neyi)

Adjectives modifying nouns

Manner and choice questions (nasıl, hangi)

Basic degree modifiers (çok, biraz)

Comparisons (daha, en)

Days of the week

Months of the year

The time question word (ne zaman)

Telling time (saat, buçuk)

Asking the time (saat kaç, saat kaçta)

Basic conjunctions (ve, ama, veya)

Causality conjunction (çünkü)

Means and accompaniment (ile, -(y)lA)

Purpose and beneficiaries (için)

Expressing desire (-mak istemek)

The past copula (-(y)DI)

The direct past tense (-DI)

Past tense personal suffixes (-DIm, -DIn)

Past tense negative (-mAdI)

Past tense questions (-DI mI)

Ordinal numbers (-(I)ncI)

Greetings and politeness

Saying 'too' (de, da)

Conversation fillers (şey, yani, hadi)

Conversational essentials

Reflexive pronouns (kendim, kendin)

Reciprocal pronouns (birbiri)

Indefinite pronouns for people (herkes, kimse)

Indefinite pronouns for things and places (her şey, hiçbir şey)

Conjunctions of consequence (bu yüzden, bu nedenle)

Correlative conjunctions (hem... hem, ne... ne)

Verbs taking the dative case (-e / -a)

Verbs taking the ablative case (-den / -dan)

Time origin (beri)

Time duration (-DIr)

Comparisons of similarity (gibi)

Comparisons of equality (kadar)

Perspectives (göre)

Verbal nouns (-mA / -mE)

Verbal nouns as objects (-mAyI / -mEyI)

Verbal nouns with the dative (-mAyA / -mEyA)

General necessity (lazım / gerek)

Personal necessity (-mAm lazım)

Third-person commands (-sIn / -sInlAr)

First person singular optative (-(y)AyIm)

Question	Answer
probably / I suppose	herhalde
to be jammed / to be clogged	tıkanmak
The traffic has probably jammed again.	Trafik herhalde yine tıkanmıştır.
He probably hasn't arrived at the office yet because the road is jammed.	Yol tıkandığı için henüz ofise gelmemiştir.
alternative	alternatif
to turn (deviate)	sapmak
He must have turned onto an alternative road because the traffic is heavy.	Trafik yoğun olduğu için alternatif bir yola sapmıştır.
definite / definitely (certain)	kesin
Those who are coming must have definitely turned down the wrong street.	Gelenler kesin yanlış sokağa sapmıştır.
gasoline	benzin
His car has probably run out of gas.	Arabasının benzini muhtemelen bitmiştir.
He must be stranded on the road because he didn't get gas.	Benzin almadığı için yolda kalmıştır.
car battery	akü
The car's battery has definitely broken down.	Arabanın aküsü kesin bozulmuştur.
The battery has probably died because the lights stayed on.	Işıklar açık kaldığı için akü muhtemelen bitmiştir.
damage	hasar
to undergo / suffer (damage)	hasar görmek
His car has probably been damaged in the accident.	Arabası herhalde kazada hasar görmüştür.
The other bus must have broken down too, seeing as it hasn't arrived yet.	Diğer otobüs de bozulmuştur ki henüz gelmedi.
The car has probably been damaged, he is probably turning to the alternative road.	Araba hasar görmüştür, muhtemelen alternatif yola sapıyordur.
almost, nearly	neredeyse
The soup is almost ready — wait five more minutes.	Çorba neredeyse hazır; beş dakika daha bekle.
We have been waiting for the bus for almost two hours.	Neredeyse iki saattir otobüs bekliyoruz.
You are probably very tired; you hardly slept at all last night.	Herhalde çok yorgunsun; dün gece neredeyse hiç uyumadın.