Guessing About the Present: The Future Simple
Usually, the Future Simple tells us what will happen. However, in European Portuguese, it is frequently used to express probability, make assumptions, or guess about the present moment.
Imagine you are throwing a surprise party, but the guest of honor (o homenageado) is running late. Instead of saying "I think he is at work," you can use the Future Simple to express "He is probably at work" or ask "Could he be at work?":
Notice how translating these sentences back to English often requires words like "probably," "could," or "must be" to capture this guessing nature.
Guessing About the Past: The Conditional
To make a guess or assumption about the past, shift from the Future Simple to the Conditional tense. This is the equivalent of asking "Could he have been...?" or stating "He was probably...":
When someone is delayed, you naturally come up with theories. You can mix and match the Future and Conditional tenses depending on whether you are guessing about an ongoing problem or a past event.
If you think his tire popped earlier (past), use the Conditional:
If you think he is currently fixing it (present), use the Future Simple:
Likewise, you can wonder if the delay is a simple mistake right now (Future), or conclude that the location itself was probably a mistake they made earlier (Conditional):