Learn Hardcore Spanish (Spain): Con esta tormenta, seguramente el tren llegará con retraso. - With this storm, the train will probably arrive late.

However, in this context it’s understood as "given this storm" / "because of this storm". Using con like this is very common in Spanish to introduce the cause or context of something:

Con este tráfico, vamos a llegar tarde.
With / Given this traffic, we’re going to be late.

So you can think of it as: "In these stormy conditions, the train will probably arrive late."

Is the comma after tormenta necessary? Could I say Con esta tormenta seguramente el tren llegará con retraso without it?

The comma is optional here, not strictly required.

Con esta tormenta, seguramente el tren llegará con retraso.
Con esta tormenta seguramente el tren llegará con retraso.

Both are correct.

The comma just makes the pause clearer and slightly separates the context (con esta tormenta) from the comment (seguramente el tren llegará con retraso). In spoken Spanish, many people would naturally pause there, so writing the comma is quite natural, but grammatically you can omit it.

How strong is seguramente? Does it mean surely, certainly, or probably?

Seguramente literally comes from seguro (sure, certain), but in everyday speech it usually means probably or very likely, not 100% certainty.

In this sentence, a natural English equivalent would be:

"With this storm, the train will probably arrive late."

If you wanted to express stronger certainty in Spanish, you might use:

Seguro que el tren llegará con retraso. – The train is sure to arrive late.
El tren llegará con retraso, seguro. – The train will arrive late, for sure.

So think of seguramente as "in all likelihood / probably" in typical usage.

Could I use probablemente instead of seguramente? Are they the same?

You can absolutely say:

Con esta tormenta, probablemente el tren llegará con retraso.

Probablemente and seguramente overlap a lot and are often interchangeable.

Subtle nuance (not always felt strongly by speakers):

probablemente: more literally probably, sounds a bit more neutral.
seguramente: often probably, sometimes feels slightly more confident or colloquial.

In this sentence, there’s no practical difference; both sound natural in Spain.

Why is it llegará (future tense) and not llega or va a llegar?

Spanish often uses the simple future (llegará) to express probability or supposition about the present or future, especially in comments or predictions:

Tendrá unos 40 años. – He’s probably about 40.
Estará en casa. – He’s probably at home.

Here, llegará can mean both:

A straightforward future:
- The train will arrive late (because of the storm).
A probable future:
- The train will probably arrive late.

You could say:

Con esta tormenta, el tren va a llegar con retraso.
(More neutral future, not as much “probability” nuance.)
Con esta tormenta, el tren llega con retraso.
(Less common for a prediction; could sound like you’re stating a scheduled fact.)

The original llegará nicely combines future + likely outcome in one form.

Why do we say el tren and not just tren like in English (the train vs train)?

Spanish uses definite articles (el, la, los, las) much more often than English.

In this sentence, you’re talking about a specific, known train (for example, the one you’re waiting for), so Spanish naturally uses el tren:

El tren llegará con retraso. – The train will arrive late.

Leaving out the article (tren llegará con retraso) is ungrammatical here. In general, expect Spanish to use articles where English often doesn’t.

What exactly does con retraso mean? How is it different from tarde or retrasado?

Con retraso literally means "with delay" and is the standard expression for trains, planes, buses, etc. arriving late:

El tren llega con retraso. – The train is arriving late / delayed.

Differences:

tarde: means late in a more general sense.
- Llegó tarde a clase. – He arrived late to class.
  You can say el tren llegará tarde, and people will understand, but for public transport, con retraso is more idiomatic, especially in Spain.
retrasado (adjective): delayed / running late.
- El tren está retrasado. – The train is delayed.
  This describes the state of the train, not how it will arrive.

So:

Llegará con retraso. – It will arrive with a delay.
Llegará tarde. – It will arrive late.
Está retrasado. – It’s (currently) delayed.

Could I say llegará retrasado instead of llegará con retraso?

You can say:

Con esta tormenta, el tren llegará retrasado.

This is grammatically correct and understandable. However:

llegar con retraso is the more standard, set expression for transport delays.
llegar retrasado sounds a bit more like describing the train’s condition or being behind schedule, whereas con retraso is the very typical formula used in announcements, boards, and everyday speech about trains and planes in Spain.

So con retraso is simply more idiomatic here.

Why is it esta tormenta and not este tormenta?

In Spanish, adjectives and determiners must agree in gender and number with the noun.

tormenta is a feminine noun: la tormenta (the storm).
Therefore you must use the feminine form of este/esta:
- esta tormenta – this storm

Forms:

este – masculine singular: este tren, este coche
esta – feminine singular: esta tormenta, esta casa

So este tormenta is incorrect because este (masculine) doesn’t match tormenta (feminine).

Can the position of seguramente change? For example, can I say Seguramente el tren llegará con retraso con esta tormenta or El tren seguramente llegará con retraso?

Yes, seguramente is quite flexible in position, and all of these are possible:

Con esta tormenta, seguramente el tren llegará con retraso.
Con esta tormenta, el tren seguramente llegará con retraso.
Seguramente, con esta tormenta, el tren llegará con retraso.
Seguramente el tren llegará con retraso con esta tormenta.

All are grammatically correct. Differences are mostly about rhythm and emphasis, not meaning:

Starting with Seguramente makes the probability feel more foregrounded.
Starting with Con esta tormenta foregrounds the cause / context.

What doesn’t sound natural is inserting con retraso in the middle of el tren llegará:

✗ el tren con retraso llegará – this sounds wrong/poetic/marked.

Is there anything specifically Peninsular (Spain) about this sentence, or would it be used the same in Latin America?

The sentence is perfectly standard and widely understood across the Spanish-speaking world.

Minor regional notes:

In Spain, con retraso is extremely common in train/plane contexts.
In some Latin American countries, you may also hear con demora:
- El tren llegará con demora.

But Con esta tormenta, seguramente el tren llegará con retraso is fully natural Spanish in Spain and acceptable Spanish in Latin America too.