If you want to hear でしょう used naturally, in bulk, and correctly, watch a Japanese weather forecast. A forecaster cannot claim to know tomorrow's weather, so almost every sentence ends in a hedge — でしょう ("will (probably) be"), 〜となるでしょう, 〜の予想です. Around that backbone sits a compact set of fixed forecast idioms — ところにより ("in places"), にわか雨 ("a passing shower"), 降水確率 ("chance of precipitation"), 気圧配置 ("pressure pattern") — that mean something more specific than their literal parts. This page reads a broadcast forecast line by line, so the register's grammar and its vocabulary click into place together.
The forecast:
それでは、全国の天気をお伝えします。現在、日本付近は西高東低の冬型の気圧配置となっています。西から前線が近づき、南から湿った空気が流れ込むでしょう。関東地方は、朝のうちは晴れますが、次第に雲が広がるでしょう。午後は、ところによりにわか雨が降るでしょう。東京の降水確率は、午前が20%、午後は60%となっています。最高気温は、東京で12度、北海道では氷点下の予想です。雨の降りやすい一日となりますので、お出かけの際は傘をお持ちください。
The opening: お＋stem＋する in a monologue
それでは、全国の天気をお伝えします。
sore de wa, zenkoku no tenki o o-tsutae shimasu
Now, here is the nationwide weather.
Even a one-way broadcast opens with humble keigo toward the unseen audience. お伝えします is お＋伝え＋する — the お＋verb-stem＋する humble (謙譲語) pattern, "I (humbly) convey." The forecaster is a service voice addressing viewers, so they humble their own act of reporting, exactly as staff do on お〜する, the humble frame. それでは ("now then / well then") is the standard segue handing off to the weather segment.
The pressure pattern: setting up the physics
現在、日本付近は西高東低の冬型の気圧配置となっています。
genzai, nihon fukin wa seikō-tōtei no fuyugata no kiatsu haichi to natte imasu
Currently, the area around Japan is in a winter pressure pattern — high in the west, low in the east.
Forecasts explain why before what, and the vocabulary is fixed. 気圧配置 ("pressure configuration / pattern") is the arrangement of highs and lows; 西高東低 ("west-high, east-low") is the four-character set phrase for Japan's classic winter pattern; 冬型 is "winter-type (weather pattern)." 〜となっています ("has come to be / stands at") is the register's formal "is currently" — more detached than 〜です, and you will hear it constantly for stating present conditions and figures. This is the descriptive frame; the conjecture starts next.
The forecast backbone: 〜でしょう
西から前線が近づき、南から湿った空気が流れ込むでしょう。
nishi kara zensen ga chikazuki, minami kara shimetta kūki ga nagarekomu deshō
A front will approach from the west, and moist air will flow in from the south.
Here is the register's engine. でしょう attaches to the plain verb 流れ込む to mean "will (probably) —." Crucially, this is a statement of probability, not a question — spoken with a falling tone, 降るでしょう means "it will probably rain," full stop. Learners who know でしょう only as a tag question ("…right?") mishear the entire forecast; the falling, forecasting でしょう is the one at work here, and the two are distinguished only by intonation (see でしょう／だろう). More set vocabulary: 前線 ("weather front") and 湿った空気 ("moist air"), the standard cause of rain in a forecast; 近づき is the 連用形 of 近づく, linking clauses in written-formal style.
Gradual change: 次第に … でしょう
関東地方は、朝のうちは晴れますが、次第に雲が広がるでしょう。
kantō chihō wa, asa no uchi wa haremasu ga, shidaini kumo ga hirogaru deshō
In the Kantō region, it will be sunny in the morning, but clouds will gradually spread.
Forecasts march region by region, each introduced with the topic は: 関東地方は…, then 東北地方は…, and so on — a listing structure that lets the viewer wait for their own area. 朝のうちは ("during the morning / while it's still morning") is a set time phrase, and 次第に ("gradually / by degrees") is the forecaster's favourite adverb for a developing trend. Note the mid-sentence ますが: the descriptive 晴れます can take polite ます, but the prediction is where でしょう lands.
The 'in places' idiom: ところにより … にわか雨
午後は、ところによりにわか雨が降るでしょう。
gogo wa, tokoro ni yori niwaka-ame ga furu deshō
In the afternoon, there will be scattered showers in places.
Two idioms here are more precise than they look. ところにより (literally "depending on the place") is the fixed forecast quantifier "in some places / in spots" — it warns that the phenomenon won't be everywhere, only patchily. And にわか雨 is not just "sudden rain"; it is the meteorological term for a brief, passing shower — rain that starts and stops quickly, as opposed to steady 雨. Read literally, these phrases dissolve; learned as units, they carry exact forecast meaning. ところにより雨 on a forecast map is the standard "showers in places."
The probability figure: 降水確率
東京の降水確率は、午前が20%、午後は60%となっています。
tōkyō no kōsui kakuritsu wa, gozen ga nijuppāsento, gogo wa rokujuppāsento to natte imasu
The chance of rain in Tokyo is 20% in the morning and 60% in the afternoon.
降水確率 ("precipitation probability") is the percentage chance of measurable rain — the forecast's one genuinely numerical claim, so it drops でしょう and uses the factual 〜となっています instead. The split by 午前 ("morning") and 午後 ("afternoon") is standard. Note the reading of the percentages: 20% is nijuppāsento, 60% is rokujuppāsento — the counter パーセント triggers the small-tsu doubling (じゅっ) you also hear in 〜本 and 〜分.
The numbers wrap: 気温 and 予想
最高気温は、東京で12度、北海道では氷点下の予想です。
saikō kion wa, tōkyō de jūni-do, hokkaidō de wa hyōten-ka no yosō desu
The high will be 12 degrees in Tokyo, and below freezing in Hokkaidō.
最高気温 ("highest temperature / the day's high"; its partner is 最低気温, "the low") and 氷点下 ("below the freezing point") are fixed weather nouns. Here the hedge is 〜の予想です ("is the forecast / is expected"), an alternative to でしょう that names the claim explicitly as a prediction. で marks the location of each figure (東京で12度). You will also meet 〜見込みです ("is expected") as another forecasting hedge in the same slot.
The close: お＋stem＋ください slips into the monologue
雨の降りやすい一日となりますので、お出かけの際は傘をお持ちください。
ame no furiyasui ichinichi to narimasu node, o-dekake no sai wa kasa o o-mochi kudasai
It will be a day when rain comes easily, so please take an umbrella when you go out.
The forecast signs off with practical advice — and watch what happens grammatically. お持ちください is お＋持ち＋ください, the honorific request "please take/carry," the very same お＋stem＋ください you meet in station announcements. A weather report is a monologue with no specific listener, yet it addresses the audience with a polite command, because broadcast media treat viewers as guests to be served. 降りやすい ("prone to rain," 降る＋やすい "easy to —") and お出かけの際は ("when you go out," 際 = "on the occasion of") are stock closing vocabulary. The same service impulse gives you 熱中症にご注意ください ("please beware of heatstroke") in summer and 足元にお気をつけください ("watch your step") on snowy days.
Common mistakes
Reading でしょう as a question. The forecast でしょう (falling tone) is a probability statement. Hearing it as "…isn't it?" mistakes the whole register.
❌ 明日は晴れるでしょうか。
でしょうか turns it into 'I wonder if it'll be sunny' — a forecaster asserts a probability (晴れるでしょう), they don't ask themselves.
✅ 明日は晴れるでしょう。
ashita wa hareru deshō
It'll probably be sunny tomorrow.
Taking ところにより and にわか雨 literally. They are fixed forecast idioms — "in spots" and "a passing shower" — not compositional descriptions.
❌ 場所によって、急な雨が降ります。
Understandable, but not the register — a forecast says ところによりにわか雨, the set idioms, not a paraphrase.
✅ ところによりにわか雨が降るでしょう。
tokoro ni yori niwaka-ame ga furu deshō
There will be scattered showers in places.
Attaching だ before でしょう. でしょう follows the plain verb or the bare noun directly — never だ.
❌ 午後は雨だでしょう。
Incorrect — no だ before でしょう. A noun attaches directly: 雨でしょう.
✅ 午後は雨でしょう。
gogo wa ame deshō
It'll probably rain in the afternoon.
Using でしょう for the hard numbers. The probability figure and temperatures are stated as facts, with 〜となっています／〜の予想です, not hedged with でしょう.
❌ 降水確率は60%でしょう。
Odd — the percentage IS the hedge; you don't then guess at it. Forecasters state it flatly: 60%となっています.
✅ 降水確率は60%となっています。
kōsui kakuritsu wa rokujuppāsento to natte imasu
The chance of rain is 60%.
Key takeaways
- でしょう is the forecast's backbone — a falling-tone probability statement ("will probably —"), never a question. A forecaster can't claim certainty, so nearly every prediction is hedged.
- Fixed forecast idioms carry exact meaning: ところにより ("in spots"), にわか雨 ("a passing shower"), 気圧配置／西高東低／冬型 (pressure patterns), 前線 ("front"), 湿った空気 ("moist air").
- 〜となっています／〜の予想です state present conditions and figures as facts; the hard numbers (降水確率, 気温) drop でしょう because they are the hedge.
- The register lists regions with the topic は (関東地方は…), uses 次第に for gradual change, and reads percentages with the doubled counter (20% = nijuppāsento).
- Broadcast forecasts close with an お＋stem＋ください request (傘をお持ちください) — polite service-language commands aimed at an audience the media treats as guests.
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