The future can point not to later time but to a conclusion about the present: Serà a casa can mean “He’s probably at home” or “I suppose he’s at home.” This is the conjectural future. It is familiar in informal speech, partly reinforced by contact with Spanish, but contemporary formal Catalan normally prefers deure + infinitive: Deu ser a casa. Learning the construction therefore means learning both its pragmatic force and its register limit.
Form and agreement
The conjectural use has no special morphology. It uses the ordinary future indicative, including the ordinary irregular stems and stress: seré, seràs, serà, serem, sereu, seran. The subject still controls person and number.
| Person | Future of ser | Possible conjectural reading |
|---|---|---|
| jo | seré | I suppose I am / I must be |
| tu | seràs | I suppose you are / you must be |
| ell, ella, vostè | serà | I suppose he, she, you are |
| nosaltres | serem | I suppose we are |
| vosaltres | sereu | I suppose you are |
| ells, elles, vostès | seran | I suppose they, you are |
Amb aquest soroll, seràs al carrer, oi?
With all that noise, I suppose you’re outside, right? (informal)
No contesten; seran al cinema.
They aren’t answering; they’re probably at the cinema. (informal)
Weak pronouns keep their normal preverbal position: Ho sabrà, no hi serà, què li passarà? The future ending agrees with the grammatical subject, not with the person making the inference.
How a future becomes a present-time guess
The semantic link is distance. An ordinary future places the situation beyond direct present verification. The conjectural future keeps that “not directly established” viewpoint but applies it to a current state. The speaker presents an inference rather than an observed fact.
Quina hora és? Seran les tres.
What time is it? It must be around three. (informal)
Qui truca tan tard? Serà la Laia.
Who’s calling so late? That’ll be Laia. (informal)
Per què està tan callat? Estarà cansat.
Why is he so quiet? He’s probably tired. (informal)
English has a similar inferential will in “That’ll be Laia,” but it uses the pattern less broadly. English “must be” often corresponds more naturally to Catalan deu ser than to a future.
Context must exclude an actual future reading. La Laia serà a casa can mean either “Laia will be at home” or, (informal), “Laia is probably at home.” A present-time cue such as ara, a question about current evidence, or visible circumstances supplies the conjectural interpretation.
The preferred standard: deure + infinitive
For neutral contemporary Catalan—and especially in (formal), (academic), administrative, and edited journalistic prose—use the present of deure plus an infinitive to infer a present situation.
Ara deuen ser les tres.
It must be around three now.
La Laia deu ser a casa, perquè hi té el cotxe aparcat.
Laia must be at home, because her car is parked there.
No ho deu saber encara; ningú no l’ha avisat.
She probably doesn’t know yet; nobody has told her.
Here deure is a modal auxiliary, not an obligation verb. Compare Deu tenir molta feina “He probably has a lot of work” with Ha d’acabar-la avui “He has to finish it today.” In writing, do not add de: the construction is deure + infinitive, not deure de + infinitive.
Degrees of commitment
Catalan offers several ways to grade a present-time inference. These are not mathematical percentages, but they signal different speaker stances.
| Form | Typical force | Register |
|---|---|---|
| potser és a casa | open possibility | all registers |
| probablement és a casa | explicit probability | neutral to formal |
| deu ser a casa | inference from evidence | neutral; preferred formally |
| serà a casa | conjecture, often conversational | informal |
| segur que és a casa | strong confidence | neutral |
These choices also differ in syntax. Potser normally combines with the indicative when the speaker advances a live possibility: Potser és a casa. A modal does not mechanically trigger the subjunctive; mood depends on whether the clause is asserted, questioned, denied, desired, and so forth.
Questions, negation, and pragmatic effects
In questions, a conjectural future asks the listener to estimate rather than to report certain knowledge.
Quants anys tindrà, el teu veí?
How old do you think your neighbor is? (informal)
On s’hauran ficat, aquests dos?
Where can those two have got to? (informal; completed-event conjecture)
With negation, no deu ser gaire lluny makes the negative proposition the likely one: “he/she is probably not very far away.” The negative precedes the modal group, and any weak pronoun appears before the finite verb.
Encara no hi serà: sempre arriba tard.
He probably isn’t there yet; he’s always late. (informal)
For a conjecture about a completed past event, informal speech may use the future perfect, as in s’hauran ficat. Formal Catalan prefers deure haver + participle: On es deuen haver ficat? See The Future Perfect.
Mini-dialogue
—Sents passes al replà? —Sí. Serà el veí que torna de treballar.
—Do you hear footsteps on the landing? —Yes. It’ll be the neighbor coming home from work. (informal)
—N’estàs segur? —No; també podria ser la cartera.
—Are you sure? —No; it could also be the mail carrier.
The future marks a quick inference, while the conditional podria explicitly opens an alternative possibility. Neither sentence asserts direct knowledge.
Regional and register notes
The inferential future is understood across the Catalan-speaking territory, but its frequency is strongly affected by register and contact patterns. The formal recommendation is stable across IEC and AVL contexts: use deure + infinitive, poder + infinitive, potser, or probablement rather than a present-time future. There is no need to assign the construction to one region; the important label is (informal).
Common Mistakes
1. Using the conjectural future in formal prose as the default expression of probability.
❌ En aquests moments, el servidor estarà saturat.
Not appropriate as a conjectural future in formal prose.
✅ En aquests moments, el servidor deu estar saturat.
At the moment, the server is probably overloaded.
2. Using the conditional as a generic past-probability marker.
❌ Serien les tres quan ha trucat.
Incorrect for standard formal Catalan as a probability estimate.
✅ Devien ser les tres quan ha trucat.
It must have been around three when he called.
3. Adding de after modal deure.
❌ Deu de ser a la cuina.
Incorrect in the standard probability construction—do not insert de.
✅ Deu ser a la cuina.
She must be in the kitchen.
4. Attaching a clitic after the finite future.
❌ Serà-hi encara?
Incorrect clitic placement.
✅ Encara hi serà?
Do you suppose he’ll still be there? / Is he probably still there? (informal)
5. Treating every future as a conjecture.
❌ Demà plourà. = Ara deu ploure.
Incorrect equivalence—the first is a future prediction; the second is a present inference.
✅ Demà plourà, però ara només està ennuvolat.
It will rain tomorrow, but right now it is only cloudy.
Key Takeaways
The conjectural future is an ordinary future form used to keep a present claim at an inferential distance. It is useful for comprehension and natural informal interaction, but deure + infinitive is the dependable neutral and formal option. Always use context to distinguish “will be” from “must be,” and move to deure haver + participle for a formally expressed inference about a completed event.
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- Forming the Simple FutureA2 — Build regular Catalan future forms from the infinitive base and the endings -é, -às, -à, -em, -eu, and -an.
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